HEBERT BOXES
HEBERT BOXES
HURRICANE DEAN IN THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
SECOND SATELLITE VIEW OF HURRICANE DEAN
Early mariners had little knowledge of hurricanes and had to rely on environmental clues to forecast their arrival. Changes in cloud formations, a falling barometer and increasing height and direction of prevailing seas were their only indication of impending disaster. As knowledge of meteorology progressed and communication methods developed there were wireless reports from those viewing the storm which gave a warning to others further along. However its only since the advent of Doppler radar, satellite views of the earth and computer models that we've gotten a glimmering of where these killer storms are headed, which as long as the tv or radio works may be passed on to us.
A meteorologist named Paul Hebert in the 1970s studied statistical tracks of hurricanes and noticed that those storms moving along a particular track in the Caribbean were more likely to impact Florida. He designated areas in the southern Atlantic and central Caribbean that were subsequently called Hebert Box No. 1 and Hebert Box No. 2. In the first satellite view of Hurricane Dean above Box No. 1 is to its right and No. 2 to the left. In the second picture more area is shown and Box 1 was to the right of Puerto Rico, the large island up to the right, Box 2 was further west with its rignt foot resting on Honduras to the right of the Yucatan Peninsula. Each comprises an area of about 900 square nautical miles. No. 1 was located from 60 to 70 degrees west latitude and 15 to 20 degrees north longitude. No. 2 from 80 to 85 west latitude and 15 to 20 degrees north longitude. He noticed that storms passing through Box no. 1 were more likely to hit Florida and after October 1st. those storms that passed through both boxes were also a danger to the Florida peninsula. Hurricane Dean passed through Hebert Box No. 1 but passed south of No. 2 and of course went on to devastate the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexican mainland.
All of Hebert's forecasts were based on statistical history and really had no meteorological basis. Hurricane Dean was forced south by a strong Bermuda High that remained close to the US mainland and its steering currents kept Dean on its westerly track. However in its day Hebert Boxes gave some indication of storm track to a worried gulf coast populace. As computer models were developed in the 80s and 90s Hebert's theory fell out of favor, and as science continues to progress even more accurate indicators will arise to give us a better idea of hurricane movements.
All of these technological marvels are a blessing as long as they function and are able to communicate their findings to weather consumers. However as those of us who've gone through several hurricanes know electronics often fail when we least expect it and we must rely on our own resources.
Perhaps some day some future hurricane historian will write about the "quaint" methods we rely so heavily on today to forecast events. That's the nature of science and technology, nothing is written in stone, all theories up for grabs.
HURRICANE FINDER advertised elsewhere on this site can track the hurricane's eye with only the device and a compass and the same device paints a picture of the storm that predicts wind direction and strength right at your front door from forecasts produced several days in advance. When your TV fails you'll still have that hard copy resting on your coffee or chart table, if you've done your homework and prepared for it. Be prepared, self reliance is a good thing.
HURRICANE FINDER may save your life when forecasts fail.
That that for this.
Take care,
JB
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