PLOTTING HURRICANE FELIX WITH HURRICANE FINDER
WAITING FOR FELIX
When Nereis and I were living in La Bacadilla, a small community on the Rio Dulce in Guatemala, I often spent afternoons gazing out over the expanse of river to the northeast from the three-story advantage of the Boom-Boom Room, the semi-restaurant owned by George Morgan who reigns over this small gringo enclave. Frequently the object of observation were huge rafts of cormorants that started with a few individuals gathering in the bay and increased to hundreds as others spotting the crowd from above zoomed in to join the festivities. We never could agree on the reason for their congregating, some thought it was a feeding behavior but I maintained it was a social occasion and somewhere in the group was a bird-orator who was regaling the hoard with news of the day. Today the main topic of discussion is probably Hurricane Felix bearing down on that little bit of paradise from the Caribbean. The cormorant pictured above might be waiting for Felix, now a category 5 storm whose track now seems to be dangerously close to George's docks.
With this in mind I e-mailed my friend Jim Hupe with whom I shared a dock there in 2004 with the latest coordinates of this potentially dangerous storm. It was at those docks in October of that year that I designed the first draft of HURRICANE FINDER when Hurricane Wilma was seemingly on a similar track. I remember standing on my dock gazing out toward El Golfette and attempting with complicated arm movements to determine direction of hurricane winds if the storm decided to pay a visit. While doodling below on Nereis later that day I began the journey that brings me to this message. So Jim I'm including in this article pictures of the potential Felix when it arrives near your boat later on this week using a now more sophisticated HURRICANE FINDER, illustrated elsewhere on this site, so you will know the direction and forecasted strength of winds. I hope it helps. Knowledge is power in most things other than certain aspects of marriage which might better be left for another venue.
When Jim replied to my message this morning he said there has never been a problem with hurricanes on the Rio, Jim doesn't worry much about anything. Cruisers refer to the Rio Dulce as just the Rio and incidentally Isla Mujeres further north in Mexico as Isla. You had to be there I guess and be a member of the club. There are no dues for this organization other than hardship and large amounts of perseverance but to those of us who've joined its rewards are well worth the effort. I reported earlier on this site about Hurricane Wilma and my travails with halyards in Slippery Solutions. If I were there now Nereis and I would be doing the same things.
The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Prediction Center produces many instruments to aid those of us in the path of hurricanes and I've reproduced what they've forecasted to happen later on this week below when Felix roars up the river, or not if Jim proves to be correct in the historical hurricane deterrent capabilities of the mountains visible all around the river basin.
Enough of this lets look at what the experts at NHC say is going to happen.
This is one of NHC's graphics indicating the probability of hurricane force winds along the predicted path of Hurricane Felix. The Rio Dulce is at the corner of the indented coast just to the upper right of the word Guatemala. You can see they forecast a ten percent probability of those winds there. See the multihued percentage scale at the bottom of the picture. The small blue area on the northwest flank of Honduras shows a 100% probability of hurricane force winds. As the storm moves west that blue area will move also. While this shows generally what might happen it doesn't indicate the direction and strength of the wind or make any reference to storm surge at any one place on the map. Later on we'll see what HURRICANE FINDER reveals for some areas of interest.
This device goes another step further illustrating in pictoral form more than any forecast allowing you to prepare for specific conditions right at your front door or cockpit. The NHC does a terrific job on the big picture, HURRICANE FINDER takes care of the little picture, or maybe these terms should be reversed as the big picture might be described as what will happen at your house or boat concerning specific wind strengths and direction not just probabilities of overall wind velocities over a large area. Additionally when electronics fail and fail they will you will still have your hard copy of those forecasted conditions to use in the emergency. If you are completely isolated from outside forecasting input HURRICANE FINDER can track the storm's eye with only the device and a compass.
This is a similar graphic showing the probability of 50 knot winds and we see there's a 20% probability of their appearance on the Rio. Note that blue area to the east and the white circle showing the eye of Felix. Visualize that blue area indicating a 100% probability of Hurricane Force Winds moving west toward the Rio Dulce and your dock in La Bacadilla.
These are the probabilities of tropical storm force winds. Note there is a 45% chance of their occurrence at the Boom-Boom Room.
This is the three-day cone of probability of the track of Hurricane Felix. Note how close it's predicted to come to the mouth of the Rio Dulce, the red area along the northeast coast of Honduras indicating a hurricane warning for that area and that the storm will arrive Wednesday at Jim's location.
The storm may go anywhere in the projected cone but more probaby will follow down its center. However since hurricanes are unpredictable and seemingly go wherever they please those anywhere in the cone of probability should take heed.
This is the five-day cone of probability of the track of Hurricane Felix which takes it almost entirely on land into Mexico but note the possibility of a more northerly or southerly track. Since five days is further along in the forecast's projection this graphic is less accurate than the three-day cone of probability, hence its greater projected area. The storm could move anywhere within the cone or break the rules and move outside it. This is a bull in the china shop situation where all rules are up for grabs.
This is a chart for mariners which shows those areas to avoid. Note the specific date indicated.
This graphic shows what has happened regarding hurricane and tropical storm force winds in the Caribbean of Hurricane Felix. The Rio Dulce is to the west and subsequent graphics will show the history of the storm as it moves toward its destiny. Nowhere on this chart does it show the strength and direction of those winds however. Only those using HURRICANE FINDER will be able to determine that.
Below is Forecast/Advisory No. 13 issued at three o'clock Universal Time, previously called Greenwich Mean Time on September 3, 2007. Just Google in National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center. It's this forecast we'll use to make a picture of the storm showing wind speeds and directions for specific areas of interest in the path of Hurricane Felix. If we didn't have this forecast we could still use HURRICANE FINDER to track the storm to help decide which way to run. This is a versitile instrument that relies on the basic nature of cyclonic storms which will not change. HURRICANE FINDER may save your life when electronics fail.
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NO 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL Storm CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX EYE DIAMETER 10 NM SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
(The figures above will be used to program HURRICANE FINDER for these precicted conditions when it nears the mouth of the Rio Dulce on Wednesday September 5, 2007. They describe the wind's forces in each of the four quadrants of the hurricane. Picture a line along the track of the hurricane and project it back through the storm. The right side is called the dangerous semicircle as its winds are higher than the left semicircle called the navigatable semicircle. Each semicircle is divided into two quadrants, NE, SE in the right semicircle and NW, SW in the left semicircle. Above we see that in the NE quadrant hurricane force winds, at least 64 knots, extend out from the eye's wall 25 nautical miles, 15 in the SE quadrant, 10 in the SW and 25 in the NW quadrants. We will use these figures to program HURRICANE FINDER to determine the direction and strength of the wind at any place on the map affected by the storm.)
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
USING HURRICANE FINDER
Its now three o'clock in the morning Tuesday September 4, 2007. I've been fighting this program downloading graphics throughout Monday in our own weather emergency consisting of hours of torrential rain and horrendous lightning, so close all you heard was zzzzzzboom, boom immediately following flash, as a severe thunder storm hovered over the Cape Coral Yacht Basin where Nereis and I are berthed. I want to have this completed for Jim so he can make preparations for the potential arrival of Hurricane Felix and will continue to labor even as Labor Day has faded from memory but not here at Hurricane Central where most days are filled with labor. You know how it is you've been there too.
Still early in the morning and I haven't completed HURRICANE FINDER'S picture of the storm but I want Jim to have the information above so I'll publish this now and edit later in the day adding additional information.
Good luck Jim and all the rest of my friends on the Rio, I hope history will repeat in proving you are in a true hurricane resistant area. We'll know tomorrow.
More later,
JB
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