JUNK WEATHER FORECASTING
HAVE I GOT YOUR ATTENTION?
TORNADOES ARE OFTEN SPAWNED BY HURRICANES
This is not about tornadoes or even the mechanics of storm formation but rather a comment about the forecasting process. The pictures in this article are mostly for effect, to get your attention. In our instant-gratification give me more TV-dominated world my little blog must take a page from mass media and tout disaster, awe, whatever, to get your attention. We tend not to react to the possibility of future events until the monster in the closet actually comes out into our dimly-lit bedrooms and screams in our ear. Did you check under the bed before retiring? Hey, he's there hiding somewhere.
The above of course is a metaphor for the possibility of a hurricane strike sometime in the distant future, often forgotten until the sky darkens and winds begin to howl. And while monsters are often figments of a child's pre-sleep mind hurricanes are not and prudent adults plan for them, even in the absence of howling winds.
Enough of this prattle lets look at the above title.
HURRICANE DEAN FIRST OF A SERIES
Once again this picture is mostly for effect to maintain your attention.
I often read the letters to the editor of any paper I happen to pick up, where ever I happen to be that year. Sometimes they're in Spanish or some other language I do not read well which poses a problem but this one was THE NEWS-PRESS a local paper produced in the nearby town of Fort Myers, luckily written in English, and available in a metal box that releases a copy every day on my morning walk around the Cape Coral Yacht Basin where NEREIS and I have been staying for the last several months. The following comes from Friday's issue, October 12, 2007. Just in case you want to check my accuracy you can pick up a copy. I must admit I buy it mostly for the N.Y Times crossword puzzle they include on the classified page. You know the N.Y. Times credo, ALL THE NEWS THAT FITS WE PRINT. Well maybe I mis wrote that, it's something like that. You know? And now you know the rest of the story.
The title of this blog comes from a Mr. Bill Stewart of Cape Coral, one quite apt I think for the following. The letter dealt with the long-range hurricane predictions given prior to the beginning of the hurricane season, June 1st to November 31st. Mr. Stewart refers to Dr. Jiff Masters whose blog appears in www.wunderground.com ,an interesting site by the way, who is cited for a chart showing the accuracy of Dr. Gray's long-range forecasts of hurricane formation and ferocity. Dr. Gray is one of those hurricane gurus who prognosticate every year regarding hurricanes and according to the letter's author his accuracy, "approaches zero!" Stewart ends the letter with, "The science simply isn't there yet for predicting storms months in advance. Publishing gloom and doom based on a continually proved to be wrong basis is junk science and bad journalism."
The next letter authored by H.L.Wooten of Fort Myers who writes about weather forecasters and states, "I know insurance companies pay them to spread their gloom and doom." He ends his letter with, "But predicting hurricanes in January is absolutely ludicrous."
ANOTHER EFFECT TO GET YOUR ATTENTION PIC
I know I've got two notions going here. Both of these letter writers think touting gloom and doom is an insidious plot by insurance companies and the media to sell their product, and there may be some truth in that.
However in this instance perhaps we should think twice in the realization that many folks are complacent and do not react to anything quickly except for tv commercials which signal time for a snack break. And while Dr. Gray may not be dead-on in his forecasts of hurricane number he does keep their very existence alive in the collective mind of a complacent populace. Also there is up-to-date science involved such as existence or absence of El Nino and La Nina events coupled with temperature of various bodies of water. It ain't all throw the dart at the list nonsense. Look back at a previous blog about Hebert Boxes, which worked in its time. Science is an ongoing and growing process which never claims absolutes and only seeks to find better methods.
Scientists only ask questions and then try to determine which is right, technology follows with machines using those answers. Its a growth process, ongoing and has no end.
In the absence of anything better we should embrace the efforts of the Dr. Grays and media's penchant for touting disaster which keeps the threat of hurricanes in our minds.
And while you're thinking of them consider HURRICANE FINDER and its ability to track hurricanes and produce a picture of the impending storm days in advance for use when media fails, predicting wind strength and direction right where you're standing.
HURRICANE FINDER MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE WHEN ELECTRONICS FAIL.
JUST A LITTLE BORED
ALWAYS WATCHING
Thats that for this.
Take care,
JB
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