IT AIN'T OVER TIL ITS OVER
Well officially it is as of December 1, 2007 but there's going to be a next year and a next after that, and so on and on. The National Hurricane Center has just released a summary of this year's hurricane season which we at Hurricane Central reproduce for you here. While you're thinking about it now is the time to plan for what's sure to come. Think about Hurricane Finder in those plans.
HURRICANE DEAN
Tropical Weather Summary
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON PRODUCED FOURTEEN NAMED STORMS...OF WHICH SIX BECAME HURRICANES...WITH TWO OF THE HURRICANES ATTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE) STATUS. IN ADDITION...TWO OTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMED DURING THE YEAR.
THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR A SEASON BUT THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. IN TERMS OF THE NOAA ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...WHICH MEASURES THE COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...
THE SEASON HAD ABOUT 82 PERCENT OF THE 1951-2000 MEDIAN ACTIVITY...
THE LOWEST OBSERVED SINCE 2002. DESPITE THE NEAR-AVERAGE OVERALL
ACTIVITY...TWO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES...DEAN AND FELIX...MADE
LANDFALL DURING THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1851.
ANDREA ORIGINATED FROM A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD FORMED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON 6 MAY...AND GRADUALLY ACQUIRED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANDREA BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 0600 UTC 9 MAY. NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR CAUSED ANDREA TO WEAKEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH BY 1200 UTC 10 MAY AND TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 11 MAY. THE REMNANT LOW LATER BECAME ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON 14 MAY.
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED ABROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON 30 MAY. THE LOW MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON 31 MAY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECAME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER EARLY ON 1 JUNE. THE ORGANIZATION CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED AT 1200 UTC 1 JUNE...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SIX HOURS LATER THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. BARRY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH AT 0000 UTC 2 JUNE WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. THEREAFTER...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTED IN WEAKENING AND BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND 1400 UTC 2 JUNE. BARRY QUICKLY LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECAME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHILE LOCATED OVER EASTERN GEORGIA EARLY ON 3 JUNE. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW INTENSIFIED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ON 5 JUNE. THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF DEATHS OR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY.
CHANTAL FORMED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA EARLY ON 31 JULY. IT
MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 MPH LATER ON 31 JULY. CHANTAL WAS SHORT-LIVED...AND IT LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY EARLY ON 1 AUGUST AS IT APPROACHED SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAINS...THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENED TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ICELAND AND LOST ITS IDENTITY ON 5 AUGUST.
DEAN...WHICH MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ON 13 AUGUST. THE CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST. DEAN BECAME A HURRICANE ON 16 AUGUST ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS...AND CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE CENTER OF DEAN PASSED BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE DURING THE MORNING OF 17 AUGUST...WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL PASSING OVER MARTINIQUE WITH CATEGORY TWO SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 100 MPH. AFTER CLEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...DEAN BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY...AND ITS WINDS REACHED 150 MPH EARLY THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. CONTINUING ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST...THE CENTER OF DEAN PASSED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA ON 19 AUGUST. AT THAT TIME DEAN WAS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 145 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE.
DEAN'S HEADING REMAINED REMARKABLY CONSTANT AND IT CONTINUED OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. DEAN BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE VERY EARLY ON 21 AUGUST ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 165 MPH...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 906 MB...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR COSTA MAYA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEAN WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING ITS TRAVERSE OF THE YUCATAN...AND EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE ON 21 AUGUST. DEAN STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 100 MPH...JUST BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY ON 22 AUGUST ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED EARLY ON 23 AUGUST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO. REPORTS FROM VARIOUS MEDIA SOURCES INDICATE THAT DEAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ROUGHLY 40 DEATHS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE LARGEST TOLLS IN MEXICO AND HAITI.
ERIN FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EARLY ON 15 AUGUST
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...THE CYCLONE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH LATER THAT DAY WHILE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE...BUT ERIN DID NOT
STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER OVER THE GULF. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MADE LANDFALL NEAR LAMAR TEXAS ON THE MORNING OF 16 AUGUST...AND BY THAT TIME ERIN HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND DURING 16-17 AUGUST AND TURNED NORTHWARD OVER WEST TEXAS ON 18 AUGUST. SURVIVING REMARKABLY OVER LAND...THE CYCLONE ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA VERY EARLY ON 19 AUGUST. WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA THAT MORNING...ERIN PRODUCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. POST-STORM ANALYSIS OF THIS UNUSUAL EVENT IS ONGOING TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND STATUS OF ERIN OVER OKLAHOMA. THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED LATER ON 19 AUGUST OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT REMNANT MOISTURE CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. OVERALL...ERIN AND ITS REMNANTS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN...SOUTH-CENTRAL...AND WESTERN TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3-7 INCHES WERE COMMON IN MANY OF THESE AREAS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 10 INCHES. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE AT LEAST 16 FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN OR ITS REMNANTS...MOSTLY DUE TO INLAND FLOODING.
FELIX FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 24 AUGUST. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 28 AUGUST...AND THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 31 AUGUST ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT PASSED NEAR GRENADA AND THE GRENADINES EARLY ON 1
SEPTEMBER. FELIX MOVED WESTWARD AND INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE
LATER THAT DAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED...AND FELIX BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THE HURRICANE WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 3 ON 3 SEPTEMBER AS IT UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT THEN RE-INTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON 4 SEPTEMBER NEAR PUNTA GORDA NICARAGUA. FELIX WEAKENED QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AND BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON 5 SEPTEMBER.
THE REMNANTS OF FELIX MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC WHERE THEY DISSIPATED
ON 9 SEPTEMBER.
MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FELIX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 130 DEATHS IN
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE HURRICANE CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGE IN THE
LANDFALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS BUILDINGS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGES OCCURRED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FELIX ALSO PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGE ON GRENADA...THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
GABRIELLE DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT
FORMED ON 3 SEPTEMBER. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS LOW MOVED SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THE LOW BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE ON 7 SEPTEMBER AND BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. AS GABRIELLE MOVED NORTHWESTWARD IT CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. GABRIELLE STRENGTHENED EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH WHILE LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW HOURS LATER...THE TROPICAL STORM MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE. AFTER LANDFALL GABRIELLE TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. GABRIELLE MOVED BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...EXITING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR KILL DEVIL HILLS EARLY ON 10 SEPTEMBER...AND THEN WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A FEW HOURS LATER. THE NEXT DAY THE CIRCULATION BECAME ILL-DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE WAS CONFINED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT...AND OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM GABRIELLE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE MINIMAL.
HUMBERTO FORMED FROM THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON 11 SEPTEMBER. EARLY THE NEXT DAY...THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INCREASED NEAR THE TROUGH AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM A FEW HOURS LATER AS IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HUMBERTO TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER. THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND NEAR 0700 UTC THAT DAY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 MPH. HUMBERTO MOVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER ON 13 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THE STORM SOON BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON 14 SEPTEMBER. ONE FATALITY IS DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HUMBERTO AND DAMAGE IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 MILLION DOLLARS.
INGRID DEVELOPED FROM A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 6 SEPTEMBER. AT THAT TIME...STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WAS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND IT WAS NOT
UNTIL 9 SEPTEMBER THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECAME PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW CENTER ON 11 SEPTEMBER. BY THE EARLY MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...WHEN THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE SYSTEM FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION MOVED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. DESPITE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...THE CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 840 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 MPH LATE THAT DAY. DURING THE MORNING OF 14 SEPTEMBER...THE SHEAR INCREASED AND INGRID WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND 1800 UTC ON 15 SEPTEMBER. THE STRONG SHEAR PERSISTED AND INGRID DEGENERATED TO A BROAD REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED IN PART FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BECAME STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST ON 17
SEPTEMBER. ON 18 SEPTEMBER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMED OVER
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING OVER OVER THE BAHAMAS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED TO PRODUCE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS LATER THAT DAY. THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING 19-20 SEPTEMBER. ON 21
SEPTEMBER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED THAT DAY ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM GAINED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER THAT DAY AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS
IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...BUT ITS MAXIMUM WINDS NEVER EXCEEDED 35
MPH. THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0000 UTC 22 SEPTEMBER NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...AND IT DISSIPATED ABOUT SIX HOURS
LATER. IMPACTS IN THE AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION WERE
MINIMAL.
JERRY FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES EARLY ON 23 SEPTEMBER. IT BEGAN AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY...BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH. JERRY ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS VERY EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT NEVER GAINED ANY MORE STRENGTH. JERRY WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IT DISSIPATED NEAR THE END OF THAT DAY WHEN IT LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. BY THEN THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
KAREN FORMED EARLY ON 25 SEPTEMBER OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 21 SEPTEMBER.
AFTER FORMATION...THE CYCLONE QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. KAREN MOVED MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHENED TO HURRICANE INTENSITY ON
26 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A LITTLE LATER THAT DAY...HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSED KAREN TO BEGIN WEAKENING. AS THE SHEAR INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. KAREN EVENTUALLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON 29 SEPTEMBER AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A REMNANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS LINGERED
NEAR AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ALTHOUGH KAREN WAS DESIGNATED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OPERATIONALLY...IT WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA.
LORENZO FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 25 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY...BUT ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED ON 27 SEPTEMBER...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TUXPAN AND A HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY. LORENZO'S PEAK WINDS REACHED 80 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH 75 MPH WINDS NEAR 0500 UTC 28 SEPTEMBER NEAR TECOLUTLA MEXICO...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. LORENZO WEAKENED RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT SIX DEATHS WERE ATTRIBUTABLE TO LORENZO.
MELISSA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 26 SEPTEMBER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED THE NEXT DAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW ABRUPTLY INCREASED EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER... AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WHILE INCHING WESTWARD...AND IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 29 SEPTEMBER...MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ABOUT A DAY. THE STORM WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON 30 SEPTEMBER WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHILE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN BECAME INTERMITTENT... AND LATER THAT DAY THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 545 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER FIRST SEEN TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON 4 OCTOBER. THE AREA REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON 8 OCTOBER. THE LOW BEGAN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON 9 OCTOBER...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 910 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ON 13 OCTOBER...THEN TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON 14 OCTOBER. IT BECAME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE ON 16 OCTOBER ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE LOW WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE AZORES.
NOEL FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEPARTED THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA ON 16 OCTOBER. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHED THE LESSER
ANTILLES...INTERACTIONS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A
SURFACE TROUGH LYING JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LATE ON 23
OCTOBER...ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE LOW MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE LOW DECREASED ON THE 27 OCTOBER...
Comment by JB: And so it ends or seems to. Things tend to go on and on. If you haven't been visited by one of these storms recently doesn't mean you won't be next time. Be prepared.
HURRICANE FINDER may save your live when electronics fail.
Soon there will be a more detailed and simpler e-version of HURRICANE FINDER which will be completely down loadable for your safety.
That's that for this.
ALWAYS WATCHING OUT FOR YOU
TAKE CARE,
JB
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