OLGA AGAIN
It ain't over til it's over once more. It's strange looking at weather maps of North and Central America today, December 11, 2007, ten days before winter officially begins the depths of the United States is plagued with ice/snow storms while subtropical storm Olga churns westward in the Caribbean, 11 days after the official end of the hurricane season. Man in his attempt to categorize his world creates timetables which our beloved Mother Nature has decided are bogus. We should feel humbled this morning in the face of her onslaught.
Isn't nature grand.
OLGA'S PROPOSED TRACK DECEMBER 11, 2007
The National Hurricane Center tells us this storm is headed toward the middle of the Yucatan Peninsula into Mexico where I spent so much time cruising on NEREIS in the last few years. That's Isla Cozumel way up to the north and it looks like landfall will be right around Puerto Aventuras where I wrote Shangri-La, one of the chapters in TILLER TALES, excerpts found elsewhere on this site.
The appearance of this unexpected storm underscores my urgings of the past to be prepared for disaster as it doesn't follow the scheduling of Man. Disaster has its own timetable and we must be ready. If you haven't made up your evacuation/disaster plan yet this might be a good time while you've got the chance. See other entries in John's Musings for suggestions and think seriously about HURRICANE FINDER which may save your life when electronics fail.
OLGA'S WIND PROBABILITIES
This is another graphic produced by the NHC showing possible wind strengths over a map of its proposed track. See the color graph below the chart for explanation. That deep purple will track westward as the center of the storm moves.
Below is the Forecast Advisory for this morning of December 11, 2007 from the NHC.
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.
INTERESTS IN HAITI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLGA.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 67.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 0SE 0SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 67.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 66.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.5N 69.4W...INLAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.5N 72.8W...NEAR COAST OF HAITI
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.5N 76.1W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.5N 79.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 83.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI
COMMENT BY JB.
Knabb and Mainelli, forecasters at the NHC predict that by December 14 the storm will be only a remnant low producing a tropical deluge for the hapless citizens of the Yucatan Peninsula. Will this be the last storm of the season? Only our beloved Mother can tell and she is mute and decidedly unpredictable. Recent displays of her will have negated our puny efforts to explain weather phenomena.
Our only response can be, IT AIN'T OVER TIL IT'S OVER.
ALWAYS WATCHING OUT FOR YOU
Thats that for this.
Take care,
JB
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