This is a picture of hurricane Floyd from NASA archives.  You already know what that peninsula is to its west.  This is another get your attention pic.

             
    
                           HURRICANE FLOYD


 Hurricanes are born in warm tropic seas.  That water is the fuel that powers these spectacular storms.
                     
As Earth warms, regardless of the cause, it seems obvious that hurricanes will become more frequent and stronger.  I remember writing almost the same words in a previous blog.


               Is this true?  Read on for more.



                    

           HURRICANE KATRINA AUG 28, 2005

If you look toward the top of this pic you can see the Mississippi Delta in line with this storm's eye.  We all know what happened to the folks in New Orleans when it came ashore.  I included this picture because just last week the 88th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society took place there at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center where many thousands of folks took shelter for days during and after the storm.  New Orleans has not yet recovered years later, which says a lot about the power of nature and how reactive government has been in the emergency.  But that's another story, it's easy to throw stones, my job is just to point out where to find them.  Ay?

One of the questions debated during the conference was whether or not global warming is fueling more hurricanes like Katrina.  You may be surprised by their consensus or lack of consensus. 

A point of contention was a study from researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Miami Lab and the University of Miami suggesting that global warming may actually decrease the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, because warming waters may increase vertical wind speed, or wind shear,  which tear away towering tops of developing hurricanes.  The study was based on observations and hurricane history rather than computer models, which have been used by many global warming studies touted by the media and one prominent ex president of the United States.

                    DIFFERENCES OF OPINION

                             THEIR DEBATE

"I think it was a seminal paper,"Richard Spinrad, NOAA's assistant administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, said Wednesday.  "There's a lot of uncertainty in the models," Spinrad said. "There's a lot of uncertainty in what drives the development of tropical cyclones, or hurricanes. What the study says to us is that we need a higher resolution of data."

Greg Holland, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said the new paper was anything but seminal. He said "The results of the study just don't hold together."
Holland is among scientists who say there is a link between global warming and an upswing in catastrophic storms. He said, "other factors far outweigh the influence of wind shear on how a storm will behave."

Comment by JB:   What are those other factors?

Holland had a sharp exchange Monday with Christopher Landsea, a NOAA scientist, during the AMS meeting.  While Holland sees a connection between global warming and increased hurricanes, Landsea believes storms only seem to be getting bigger because people are paying closer attention. Big storms that would have gone unnoticed in past decades are now carefully tracked by satellites and airplanes, even if they pose no threat to land.

The exchange, captured by National Public Radio, illustrates how emotional the global warming debate has become for hurricane experts.

"Can you answer the question?" Landsea demanded.

"I'm not going to answer the question because it's a stupid question," Holland shot back.

The passion was no surprise to the TV weather forecasters, academic climatologists, government oceanographers and tornado chasers attending the meeting.

"One thing I've learned about coming to this conference over the years is that very few people agree on anything," said Bill Massey, a former hurricane program manager at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

"There's a legitimate scientific debate going on and a healthy one, and scientists right now are trying to defuse the emotion and focus on the research," said Robert Henson, the author of "The Rough Guide to Climate Change."

Whether global warming is increasing the frequency of major storms or reducing it, Henson said, lives are at stake.  "Let's say you have a drunk driver once an hour going 100 miles an hour in the middle of the night on an interstate.  Say you're going to have an increase from once an hour to once every 30 minutes; that's scary and important.
But you've got to worry about that drunk driver if it's even once an hour."

Massey agreed. "In 1992 we had one major storm. It was Hurricane Andrew. It was a very slow year. But one storm can ruin your day."

                       Comment by JB:

And this my friends might be the time to look at Hurricane Finder, specs found elsewhere on this site.

Well there you have it.  Will hurricanes become more prevalent as Earth warms and will they be stronger?   It seems that climatologists cannot agree.  Only time will tell, and let me end with, you guessed it.

                  THE EARTH ABIDES 




              ALWAYS WATCHING OUT FOR YOU


                    TAKE CARE,

                                                  JB