A lightning bolt striking a nearby mast at the Cape Coral Yacht Basin where NEREIS  and I currently reside took out my television set and I purchased a new HD model a day or so ago.  When programing the thing I discovered a public station that broadcasts Florida government meetings and this brought the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference to my attention at five this morning.  Speaking was William Gray the sometimes maligned hurricane frequency prognosticator who was speaking about his research methods.
      
                           
         WILLIAM GRAY LEFT AND PHIL KLOTZBACK

Drs Gray and Klotzback produced their hurricane frequency report for 2008 earlier this year, which indicated a slightly more active season from the previous two years.

These of you who frequent this site probably know I have a graduate degree in Marine Science and that this drives my interests in oceanography and concomitantly weather.  Earth is convently located near but not to close to the sun and its rotation and the tilt of the axis provides a near ideal temperature for sustaining life.  Weather and changes in the ocean's  circulation further smooth out temperature's highs and lows.  This is discussed in more detail on other pages of this site and in the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE.  

During the TV program Dr Gray mentioned a concept I was not familiar with and this brought me to my Google button.  I don't know what students did prior to the Internet, well actually I do having spent thousands of study hours in libraries across the United States, but today's quest for knowledge is so much easier.  Of all the benefits of the Web the dissemination of ideas instantly available worldwide is the most important.  This is what's changing society more than any other factor of modern life.  Well that's my opinion anyway. 

Dr Gray mentioned that one of his primary tools in hurricane prognostication was theromohaline circulation, principally in the Atlantic Ocean.  Thermo implying heat, haline salt, therefore circulation of salt water.  This is some of what I found.  By the way if you've gotten this far stick with it because there are some cartoons at the end of this exercise which may amuse you.

                     


                     THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION

                                        IN THE

                               ATLANTIC OCEAN

When I first sat down on the Rio Dulce in Guatemala to write about hurricanes for the first edition of HURRICANE FINDER I wanted to make some sense of their existence other that abject destruction.  There's a Yin/Yang positive/negative aspect in most things and what came to mind was temperature distribution and how weather and tropical cyclones help even out temperature on earth for the benefit of the proliferation of life.  You can see some of my thoughts on that in several places on this site, look for SURVIVING A HURRICANE AT SEA and CHICKEN SOUP AND HURRICANES.

Dr Gray spoke quite interestingly to his audience at the Governor's Symposium on Hurricanes and I wish I could have attended.  The intensity and humor of his presentation brought me back to my own graduate school days of relative youth.  There's no greater lure to us lab rat types than something new in our sphere of interest, the cheese in the trap.  Something like that.  Well you know. 

Back to the task, look at the above graphic of the Atlantic.  The red bands show warm-water circulation driven by surface winds.  The blue  bands indicate circulation of dense salty water returning to its original position on Earth.  Estimated time for this journey is in the hundreds and perhaps thousands of years.

The point Dr Gray made was changes in ocean circulation influences changes in atmospheric circulation which can be used to predict the formation of hurricanes.  At least this is his hypothesis.  He and other weather gurus use computer programs to show relationships in the real world on cyber space screens.  As with all study applications keep in mind the garbage in, garbage out admonitions of those detractors who would disagree with the programers.  It's all Greek to me but its great fun watching those who can make this modern day magic work. 

The upshot of this whole thing is that Earth is a complicated entity and as yet Man has not figured it out.  By the way Dr Gray mentioned he didn't think humans have anything to do with apparent climate change. 

There's a huge debate going on in the scientific community as well as with the public opinion manipulators who would have you believe one thing or another for reasons not necessarily in the public interest.  Dogma, the idea that one and only one idea is accurate is often a tool of those with hidden agendas.  Look at some of the previous blogs for more on these subjects.

               

                       

                     THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION

                                    WORLD WIDE

I thought you'd like to see the above graphics on thermohaline circulation.  Dr Gray thinks he can use changes in heat exchange in the oceans to predict hurricane's onset and perhaps their severity.  Time will tell if he's correct.  For those of us on the sidelines it's a fascinating debate.  I'll let you know what I find out.

Here are the cartoons I promised.  Enjoy.

        
                                       
              

                    LETS PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE

Humor often puts the whole thing in perspective.  Unfortunately it's left to only a few to worry about really important issues.  Thank goodness there are shepards to care for us in our apathy.
               

                ALWAYS WATCHING OUT FOR YOU


                               TAKE CARE,  

                              JB