BERMUDA MEET BERTHA FOUR DAYS FROM NOW
Today is July 10, 2008. According to the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Bertha will be in the vicinity of Bermuda four days from now on July 13. They forecast the storm to be at 31 north latitude by 62 west longitude with maximum winds of 80 knots and gusts to 100 knots.
But what will be the specific conditions at St. Davids Lighthouse on St. Georges Island to the north of the island of Bermuda? HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE advertised elsewhere on this site can tell you in minutes the direction and strength of the wind anywhere in Bermuda four days from now. See below for specifics.
BERMUDA
I have chosen Saint Davids Lighthouse on Saint Georges Island, the northenmost island in the Bermuda group, to describe specific conditions expected when Hurricane Bertha arrives on July 13th.
BERMUDA STREET MAP
SAINT DAVIDS LIGHTHOUSE
Lets imagine we live in the white building with the red striped awnings just to the right of the lighthouse. If this picture was taken in the early morning judging from the direction of the shadows, north would be on a line between the electric pole on the left and the lighthouse. That is if you stood by the pole and looked toward the lighthouse you would be looking north.
What can we expect to happen four days from now with our peaceful life in paradise?
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA JULY 4, 2008
On July 4, 2008 Bertha was just beginning its journey in the Eastern Atlantic. Due to various geographical and atmospheric factors storms forming near Africa will curve to the right and avoid Central and North America. HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE gives you background information on hurricanes and their formation so you will have confidence in judging their behavior. This manual may save your life when electronics fail.
HURRICANE BERTHA JULY 10, 2008
This is the National Hurricane Center's graphic showing the cone of probability for Hurricane Bertha on July 10. They have indicated the forecasted track of the storm to be in the center of the cone but its edges show the limits of probable tracks. That is the storm could go to the west of Bermuda or way off to the right on the east.
HURRICANE BERTHA JULY 13, 2008
According to the NHC forecast today, July 10, 2008, Bertha will be next to Bermuda as shown on July 13. We've shown that position on the Atlantic Hurricane Tracking map available from the National Hurricane Center and also from GLOBAL WEATHER SOLUTIONS along with many other tracking charts covering everywhere on earth hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons occur. Different names same type of storm.
But what will be the specific forecasted conditions on that day, July 13, on Lighthouse Street?
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
Forecast/Advisory number 29 from the NHC states the following for July 13, four days from now.
Forecasted position 31.0 north latitude, 62.0 west longitude.
Maximum wind 80 Knots, gusts to 100 knots.
50 kt 80NE, 60 SE, 45 SW, 60 NW
34 Kt 150 NE, 120 SE, 90SW, 120 NW
The above describes wind conditions in the four quadrants of the hurricane for winds of 50 knots and 34 knots. 34 knots are tropical storm force winds. Hurricane Force winds have not been shown as the NHC cannot predict their extent so far in the future, however using the HURRICANE FINDER CHART included with HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE you can estimate strength and direction of winds throughout the storm. Hurricane force winds of 80 to 100 knots will be experienced at the eye wall and decrease to the perimeter of tropical storm force winds..
All of this is explained along with everything needed to understand compass direction, latitude, longitude,hurricane tracking maps, universal time, hurricane quadrants, hurricane semicircles, surviving a hurricane at sea etc.
The Table of Contents of HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE is shown elsewhere on this site. The manual is a textbook describing hurricane anatomy and forecasting written so your average sixth grader can explain it to you.
This information given in the NHC forecast above is all you need to determine specific conditions on your little house next to St. Davids Lighthouse.
HURRICANE FINDER CHART
HURRICANE BERTHA JULY 13, 2008
The above is Hurricane Finder Chart included with Hurricane Survival Guide. It details a picture of Hurricane Bertha as forecasted on July 13 four days from now. The eye diameter was not given in this forecast but previously was indicated as 30 nautical miles. We've indicated the extent of tropical storm force winds, 34 knots, as the red dotted line. The dots in the center of each quadrant, NE, SE, SW and NW indicate the extent of those winds in each of the four quadrants. Hurricane Survival Guide explains all this in detail.
You can see that Bertha is asymmetrical, as most hurricanes are, and that St. Davids Lighthouse and your little house next to it is in the northwest quadrant outside of the perimeter of tropical storm force winds. Therefore the strength of the winds would be somewhat less than 34 knots, estimated 25 to 30 knots.
Typically the major rain event is in the northeast quadrant so rainfall should not be overly severe. There will be considerable wave heights at the beaches on the east side of Bermuda and depending on the state of the tide upon storm's arrival storm surge will also be experienced.
Using directions in Hurricane Survival Guide we've determined the wind will come first from 45 degrees, the northeast, at between 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts. Using this information residents of the little white house next to the lighthouse should store outside things on the leeward side, southwest side, of the building and move cars further inland. Those awnings are on the southeast part of the house but should be taken down anyway. Windows on the northeast side should be protected against windblown debris.
As the storm passes the wind's direction will "back", that is it will turn counterclockwise, at first toward the north and then around to the west, southwest and finally from a southerly direction. Therefore residents of the little white house with the red striped awnings must prepare for changing wind directions and conditions.
Usually as the storm moves away winds will decrease in severity but knowledge is power and this awareness of hurricane anatomy from HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE may save your life when electronics fail. Be powerful, get some knowledge.
As weather systems pass a geographic point wind direction will typically change. With the approach of cold fronts in the northern hemisphere wind will usually turn to the south and then "clock" turn clockwise to a northerly direction. Weather people refer to this changing of wind direction as clocking and backing. Knowing that changing wind direction presages changing weather conditions gives you another bit of knowledge for your power arsenal.
Keep in mind this is a prediction made four days in advance. If the storm moves closer to Bermuda conditions will be more severe. In practice pictures of the storm would be made with each forecast/advisory as the storm approaches to fine-tune plans.
All of this is explained in detail in the Hurricane Survival Guide.
That's that for this. Good luck
Bermuda.
FRANNIE THE WATCHFLAMINGO
ALWAYS WATCHING OUT FOR YOU
TAKE CARE,
JB
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