John's Musings: BERMUDA MEET BERTHA FOUR DAYS FROM NOW CONTINUED

John's Musings, Food For Thought

Food For Thought

John's Musings: BERMUDA MEET BERTHA FOUR DAYS FROM NOW CONTINUED

BERMUDA MEET BERTHA FOUR DAYS FROM NOW CONTINUED

Yesterday we wrote about Hurricane Bertha's journey to Bermuda. A new forecast changed the forecasted conditions at St. Davids Lighthouse and as HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE suggests we are documenting it in another HURRICANE FINDER CHART.

To refresh your memory here's St. Davids Lighthouse with the target house next to it.

St. Davids Lighthouse

The lighthouse is located on St. Georges Island near Bermuda's International Airport, see map below.

                                        BERMUDA



                          HURRICANE FINDER CHART

                                 JULY 13 FORECAST

This is the forecasted position given for July 13, 2008. Below is the National Hurricane Center's cone of probability for July 1i, 2008.

                     BERTHA CONE OF PROBABILITY

                                 JULY 11, 2008

Forecast/Advisory Number 33 as of 0900 Universal Time (UTC) for Monday July 14 indicates the following predicted conditions for Hurricane Bertha. (All aspects of map reading, universal time, etc are explained in HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE.)

Eye location 32.5 N Latitude, 61.0 W Longitude

Max Wind 65 Knots, Gusts 80 Knots

34 KT 140 NE, 140SE, 120 SW, 120 NW

Using this new information we've made another picture of the storm on the following HURRICANE FINDER CHART.


                     HURRICANE FINDER CHART

                                 JULY 14, 2008

Comparing the two charts above we see that predicted storm conditions have deteriorated and that our little house next to the lighthouse is now within the tropical storm force wind perimeter. Winds are now predicted to be between 40 and 45 knots and using directions given in HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE, the winds will come from 22 degrees, north north east.

Using this updated information the residents of the little white house must amend their plans for dealing with the storm's greater predicted conditions.

As the storm passes the wind's direction will "back", that is it will turn counterclockwise, at first toward the north and then around to the west, southwest and finally from a southerly direction. Therefore residents of the little white house with the red striped awnings must prepare for changing wind directions and conditions.

Usually as the storm moves away winds will decrease in severity but knowledge is power and this awareness of hurricane anatomy from HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE may save your life when electronics fail. Be powerful, get some knowledge.

As weather systems pass a geographic point wind direction will typically change. With the approach of cold fronts in the northern hemisphere wind will usually turn to the south and then "clock" turn clockwise to a northerly direction. Weather people refer to this changing of wind direction as clocking and backing. Knowing that changing wind direction presages changing weather conditions gives you another bit of knowledge for your power arsenal.

We will look at the situation tomorrow morning to see what changes occur as Hurricane Bertha continues its journey.