COMMENT BY JB.

You probably will not read all of the following document, but you should.  This is the revised hurricane forecast by Dr. Gray dated today June 2, 2010.  Here he gives rationale for increasing his prediction of hurricane activity this year.  If you have any curiosity about his prognostication you'll look this document over carefully.

Additionally please look elsewhere on this site for information on our HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE.  Remember it may save your life when electronics fail.  Know what wind conditions to expect at your front door days before the storm's arrival and have time to prepare your property and decide if your area is in danger of storm surge.  Then you can arrange for evacuation days before anyone else thinks about it and secure a place of safety for you and your family.  Know before you go.


                                       That's that for this. 

                                              Take care, 

                                                  JB

 

EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010  

 

We foresee a very active hurricane season in 2010. We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Niño to currently-observed neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season.

(as of 2 June 2010)

By Philip J. Klotzbach

 

 

 

1 and William M. Gray2

 

 

This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

 

 

 

 

Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative, (970-491-6432) is available to answer various questions about this forecast

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523

Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu 

 

 

 

Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane activity?

 

We are frequently asked this question. Our answer is that it is possible to say something about the probability of the coming year’s hurricane activity which is superior to climatology. The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. People are very curious to know how active the upcoming hurricane season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology for many past years.

 

 

Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early June. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season based on similar conditions in past years. Our early June statistical forecast methodology shows strong evidence over 58 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained. We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had a statistical model developed over a long hindcast period which showed significant skill over climatology.

We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or an inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. This is not always true for individual seasons. It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, all coastal residents should prepare for an active hurricane season every year. Landfalling tropical cyclones can devastate communities in inactive or active seasons. It only takes one landfalling system to make this a very active season for you.

 

 

 

 

2

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	Issue Date 9 December 2009	Issue Date 7 April 2010	Issue Date 2 June 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	11-16	15	18
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)	51-75	75	90
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	6-8	8	10
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)	24-39	35	40
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3-5	4	5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)	6-12	10	13
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	100-162	150	185
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)	108-172	160	195