John's Musings

JBs Take On The Gulf Oil Spill

JB — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 16:24:29 GMT

              How Oil and Gas were Formed

Oil and gas form as the result of a precise sequence of environmental conditions:

The presence of organic material

Organic remains being trapped and preserved in sediment

The material is buried deeply and then slowly "cooked" by increased temperature and pressure.

                               JBs Comment

If you'd like specifics see below. The gist of it is that oil and gas were and are even now being formed by processes of the earth from living things growing on the earth. Therefore both oil and gas are subject to organisms of the earth that will decay that oil and gas, in effect eat it. That is eventually all of the oil now spewing out of BPs oil pipe will be eliminated naturally by earth's backup army of defense.

However, when you view that oil gushing out almost a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico there is a second plume rising with it. They seem remarkably similar in volume. The second plume is a toxic dispersant used to make the crude oil sink and therefore go unobserved by those viewing from above. The crude oil will eventually be eaten by Earth's army but the poison will work to kill everything else living in the gulf, perhaps including microorganisms working to remove the crude, which exacerbates the problem, perhaps allowing the results of the spill to remain for even more decades.

My thesis here is this. It ain't the crude oil that's the greatest threat, it's the toxic dispersant used to hide the crude from the eyes of the world.

The moral of this story is. Don't mess with Mother Nature. Because if Momma ain't happy, nobody happy.

Additionally hurricane season is here. The huge expanse of crude/toxic dispersant may end up in your back yard creating an even greater catastrophe.

You can't do anything about that but you can prepare for the eventuality of a hurricane in your back yard. Look elsewhere on this site and consider the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE. It's not anything like similarly named publications published by you local newspaper but a textbook which will show you how to track and prepare for a hurricane when all hell approaches.

The HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE, excerpts found elsewhere on this site, may save your life and property when electronics fail.

That's all I've got on this.

                          Take care,

                               JB

Oil has formed throughout much of the Earth's history, in fact, oil is being formed in some parts of the Earth today. Almost all oil and gas comes from tiny decayed plants, algae, and bacteria. At certain times in the Earth's history conditions for oil formation have been particularly favourable. Oil from the North Sea is mainly found in rocks that formed during the Jurassic period - about 150 million years ago, long before people appeared on Earth.
During this time the seas and swampy areas were rich in microscopic plants and animals.

When these died they slowly sank to the bottom forming thick layers of organic material. This in turn became covered in layers of mud that trapped the organic material.

Oil and gas were formed by the anaerobic decay of organic material in conditions of increased temperature and pressure.

The layers of mud prevented air from reaching the organic material. Without air, the organic material couldn't rot in the same way as organic material rots away in a compost heap. As the layers of mud grew in thickness, they pushed down on the organic material with increasing pressure. The temperature of the organic material was also increased as it was heated by other processes going on inside the Earth.

Very slowly, increasing temperature, pressure and anaerobic bacteria - micro-organisms that can live without oxygen - started acting on the organic material. As this happened the material was slowly cooked and altered, like food in a pressure cooker. In this was the energy first given to the plants by the sun is transferred and the organic matter is changed into crude oil and gas.

Oil forms first, then as the temperature and pressure increase at greater depth gas begins to form.

Temperatures within the Earth's crust increase with depth so that the sediments, and any plant materials they contain, warm up as they become buried under more sediment. Increasing heat and pressure first cause the buried algae, bacteria, spores and cuticles (leaf skin) to join their wax, fat and oil to form dark specks called kerogen.

The cellulose and woody part of plants are converted to coal and woody kerogen. Rocks containing sufficient organic substances to generate oil and gas in this way are known as source rocks. When the source rock starts to generate oil or gas it is said to be mature.

As the source rock gets hotter, chains of hydrocarbon chemicals use this heat energy to break away from the kerogen to form waxy and viscous heavy oil. At greater depth, the temperature rises. At higher temperatures the chains of hydrocarbons become shorter and break away to give light oil and gas. Most North Sea Oil is the valuable light oil. Gas from the Southern North Sea is methane.

Oil and gas are called 'hydrocarbons' because they mostly contain molecules of the elements hydrogen and carbon.

Crude oil is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons with small amounts of other chemical compounds that contain sulphur, nitrogen and oxygen.

Traces of other elements, such as sulphur and nitrogen, were also present in the decaying organic material, giving rise to small quantities of other compounds in crude oil.

Hydrocarbon molecules come in a variety of shapes and sizes, (straight-chain, branched chain or cyclic), this is one of the things that makes them so valuable because it allows them to be used in so many different ways.

Oil and gas form as the result of a precise sequence of environmental conditions:

The presence of organic material

Organic remains being trapped and preserved in sediment

The material is buried deeply and then slowly "cooked" by increased temperature and pressure.

Dr. Gray's revised hurricane forcast June 2, 2010

JB — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 20:25:00 GMT

COMMENT BY JB.

You probably will not read all of the following document, but you should. This is the revised hurricane forecast by Dr. Gray dated today June 2, 2010. Here he gives rationale for increasing his prediction of hurricane activity this year. If you have any curiosity about his prognostication you'll look this document over carefully.

Additionally please look elsewhere on this site for information on our HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE. Remember it may save your life when electronics fail. Know what wind conditions to expect at your front door days before the storm's arrival and have time to prepare your property and decide if your area is in danger of storm surge. Then you can arrange for evacuation days before anyone else thinks about it and secure a place of safety for you and your family. Know before you go.

                                       That's that for this.

                                              Take care,

                                                 JB

EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010

We foresee a very active hurricane season in 2010. We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Niño to currently-observed neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season.

(as of 2 June 2010)

By Philip J. Klotzbach

1 and William M. Gray2

This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative, (970-491-6432) is available to answer various questions about this forecast

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523

Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu

Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane activity?

We are frequently asked this question. Our answer is that it is possible to say something about the probability of the coming year’s hurricane activity which is superior to climatology. The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. People are very curious to know how active the upcoming hurricane season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology for many past years.

Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early June. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season based on similar conditions in past years. Our early June statistical forecast methodology shows strong evidence over 58 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained. We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had a statistical model developed over a long hindcast period which showed significant skill over climatology.

We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or an inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. This is not always true for individual seasons. It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, all coastal residents should prepare for an active hurricane season every year. Landfalling tropical cyclones can devastate communities in inactive or active seasons. It only takes one landfalling system to make this a very active season for you.

2

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)

Issue Date

9 December

2009

Issue Date

7 April 2010

Issue Date

2 June

2010

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)

11-16

15

18

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

51-75

75

90

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)

6-8

8

10

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)

24-39

35

40

Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)

3-5

4

5

Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)

6-12

10

13

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)

100-162

150

185

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

108-172

160

195

2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

JB — Thu, 27 May 2010 17:16:00 GMT

     NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

May 27, 2010

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:

8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:

3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

                                                         COMMENT BY JB

Earth is changing and more hurricanes are a part of that. This extensive article suggests that everyone in a hurricane zone have a plan of action. I urge that you look at the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE, excerpts elsewhere on this site, and learn how to cope without electronics, television, weather reports, the media. Self reliance is a good thing. Prepare to learn how to track hurricanes and their winds well before the fact. HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE may save your life when electronics fail.

Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.

High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."

The president recently designated May 23-29, 2010, as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

                    That's that for this. Take care and be safe.

                                                 JB

HURRICANES GETTING STRONGER

JB — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 13:28:00 GMT

Every morning at sunrise, here at the Cape Coral Yacht Club where Nereis and I live (Nereis is my partner (boat) on which we have cruised over twenty five thousand miles around North and Central America) I walk around the municipal pool, the senior center and several buildings in the complex to the beach where some newspaper machines are located in front of K Cs River Stop, the small open-air restaurant which sometimes lures me with a Corona con limon. It is there that I purchase a News-Press, the local Fort Myers, Florida newspaper, which has the New York Times crossword puzzle that puzzles me before breakfast.  Then I continue walking around along the canal that leads to the Caloosahatchee River, it's three miles to the Gulf of Mexico, and back to the comfy confines of my water-borne home.

On the front page, above the fold, must be important, the headline, "WARMING TO BRING STRONGER STORMS" leaped out at me.



                                                                           THE FIERY SUN

Heat from the sun is responsible for much of the weather events on earth. Many believe MAN is responsible for increased warming of EARTH and brings us back to today's headline in the News-Press.

See previous article in this blog for more on global change-warming and the continuing controversy.




                       PALMS IN KATRINA'S WINDS

Perhaps we could read these palms for future events. Or not. You decide.

The article mentioned the publisher of the pronouncement regarding increased hurricane strength as the on line journal NATURE GEOSCIENCE.



You can purchase a year's subscription for $159.00 or read abstracts of articles in the on line version.

I'd paste the abstract here but it's copyrighted material so here's the gist. The article and authors.

              Tropical cyclones and climate change

                                 Published on line: 21 February 2010

Thomas R. Knutson¹, John L. McBbride², Johnny Chan³, Kerry Emanuel⁴, Greg Holland⁵, Chris Landsea⁶, Isaac Held¹, James P. Kossin⁷, A. K. Srivastava⁸ & Masato Sugi⁹

By the year 2100, that's 90 years from now for those numerically challenged, overall strength of hurricanes will rise by 2 to 11 percent. However there will be between 6 and 34 percent fewer storms.  (In a previous blog article I mentioned this reduction in the number of storms is due to increased heat producing stronger mid level winds that shear off the tops of developing storms.)

Here's the interesting factoid.  An 11% increase in wind strength would result in almost a 60% increase in damage. This is because the strength of wind is, similar to the strength of earthquakes, it's exponential, not arithmetic. That is it's not 4, 6, 8 but  4, 16, 64, the square of the number.  Which makes an 11% increase significant.

The article goes on to say that by the end of the century category 4 and 5 hurricanes would almost double but authors of the study also say that, "It doesn't make clear whether global warming will lead to more or less hurricane damage." Isn't that interesting.

Interested in knowing more e-mail Thomas R. Knutson at    Tom.Knutson@noaa.gov

Whether or not this information is factual remains to be seen. However those wishing to be prepared for any eventuality go to www.globalweathersolutions.com and look at the hurricane survival guide. It may save your life when electronics fail



                   That's that for this.

                          Take care,

                                JB

MYANMAR'S CYCLONE NARGIS REVISITED

JB — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 14:04:00 GMT

                This pic on the left is tropical cyclone NARGIS as it devastated Myanmar about a year ago. I wrote about this in a previous blog entry mentioning that when I was a kid during the Second World War this part of Asia was called Burma. Remember the BURMA DEATH MARCH? I imagine the lowlands today are much like they were then, shown in the center pic.  Progress is slow in third-world countries.

            One of the great innovations of the advent of HDTV, which I receive with a small disk antenna on NEREIS, my sailboat home for over a decade and a half, is that there are four versions of Public Television available twenty-four hours a day. Not so for the children pictured above on the right who look remarkably like two featured in a program shown this weekend. They were part of a family of three consisting of the male leader, ten-years old, his seven-year old sister and toddler brother, perhaps two-years old. Their parents were drowned during the cyclone and these three live alone together in a shack near the water.   Their home was pictured as the one above with holes for insect intrusion in the primitive stick house.



            The pic on the left shows what they see from the mud street in front of their only protection from the elements, much like the picture on the right. The middle picture is probably occupied by a family headed by adults and is similar to those I once putted by in my launcha in a tributary of the Rio Dulce in Guatemala. I wrote about that area and you can see pictures of those abodes in TILLER TALES in the chapter titled RIO DULCE DICHOTOMY. You can read excerpts elsewhere on this site.

                         .

            Their mother was cooking a meal for them when disaster struck, food brought from the proceeds from her occupation as water bearer. She was paid to bring water to others. This was her job! A different world from one many of us are used to. The pic above on the right is a water purification system used today to supply water to these hapless children who are living now, just as yours do in a far different environment, I imagine. I doubt there are many computers in this part of Myanmar. The pic on the left shows an aerial view of their community. The center pic shows a still devastated shoreline from which small boats put out to catch fish and other denizens of the shallow lagoon, such as crabs.



            This pic depicts a visit from the leaders of Myanmar, the ruling junta, military men, who are well fed and probably have access to the Internet. In the documentary I saw last Saturday they were seen explaining to the cries of hunger and despair in the aftermath of Nargis that they were just visiting and would see about helping them later. As it happens much later. Actually little or no help has been offered. In fact these uniformed "leaders" refused much of the world's offers of food and water and confiscated much of what they did accept for monetary gain.

            I saw lots of poverty in the third world nations I've visited in my travels around the Caribbean, single-handing NEREIS. I remember sailing from Cuba to Marathon in the Florida Keys in 1996. The day after arrival I walked up to one of the supermarkets in that sleepy village and stood transfixed at the largess strewn before me. In Cuba, even the Dollar Stores, those catering to foreigners who had dollars, little of the World's goods were available. The peso stores had mostly empty board shelves.  There was perhaps some straggly produce and maybe an unrefrigerated chicken or two, hanging for those lucky enough to find. I had tears in my eyes viewing the multicolored wonders in that store in Marathon. Not much has changed in the decade passed in Cuba and apparently Myanmar. Progress is slow for the downtrodden in third-world countries, and most are downtrodden.  Third-World rich are reluctant to allow a middle class to develop, I guess in fear of sharing the wealth.

                             THE POINT OF THIS ESSAY

        Well, last Saturday watching the documentary about Myanmar one year later after Cyclone Nargis ,the well-fed camera team interviewed the little family of three headed by a ten-year old boy with his sister and little brother. They were asked about their life and what has happened since they've lost their parents. These are the last questions and answers I heard before switching channels in an inability to continue watching through near sobs were as follows.

           The family leader, ten-years old, was asked, "What do you want to be?" He replied, now this was via an interpreter. (I wonder if they speak Burmese in Myanmar.) He said, "I want to catch crabs."

           Not I want to be a fireman or policeman or doctor or lawyer, none of that. I guess this was a natural reply as there were none of these in his life to admire and his role models were indeed fisherman and crab-catchers. Then I heard what his seven-year old sister said.

            She said, "Then I'll cook the crabs for the boy." Referring to her toddler brother who with her ten-year old brother she was raising. This is the life they envisioned for the future. This was to be their adult existence. I couldn't watch any more, it was just too much heartbreak.

            What kind of world is this that children are raising children and aspire only to be crab-catchers and crab-cookers in order to feed their child/toddler/brother?

            This is not a plea for support for these three living in the same world as your children, Myanmar military "men" would not accept it or perhaps steal it for themselves. No, this is just a tale of what reality is for many in a World of relative plenty, for those privileged to have it.

                            NOW THE MORAL.

            Could this happen in the United States? Ask those folks living in New Orleans still reeling from Hurricane Katrina. Still reeling!  Disasters can return all of us back to a Stone Age in almost an instant. In some future time you too may aspire to crab catching as your only possible occupation. Don't scoff. Civilization's veneer is thinner than any of us can imagine. Water bearer for the community in good times. What happens in bad times?

            How can you save your family from disaster? Look elsewhere on this site for tips on hurricane preparedness and think about down loading the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE .

                         THATS THAT FOR THIS.

                                  TAKE CARE,

                                          JB

ARE YOU A METEOROLIGIST?

JB — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:46:00 GMT

                                                                              THE FIERY INFERNO

        The above picture has noting to do with the following but is a great attention grabber and your attention is what I seek. I also think it's a great pic.

            I receive and avidly read the writings of Blaney Colmore, a retired preacher, who always makes me smile and think, mostly think. Thinking is a good thing, I think, therefore I am. I'm just rambling here go on to the next paragraph.

            Blaney's latest writing appears in part below. For the rest of it Google his name.

Easy Exit
Notes From Zone 4
Occasional Writing From Blayney Colmore
William Porcher DuBose August 18, 2009

In his Natural History of Religion, David Hume speaks of a Turkish prisoner under questioning, who had converted to Christianity: How many gods are there? he was asked. To which he replied: None at all… You have told me all along there is but one God: and yesterday I ate him.

********

I recently wrote to Rev Colmore telling him how much I enjoyed his writings and asked him to look at this site as some of my entries deal with things other than weather, and are also think pieces, I think. He graciously did and here's what he wrote back.

      From: Blayney Colmore
      Subject: Re: Blayney's Notes/Easy Exit
       To: "John Buchanan" Date: Tuesday, August 18, 2009, 2:48 PM

Wow, John, that’s a very impressive web site!

Forgive me for asking a question I perhaps have been given the answer to: are you a meteorologist?

And what are your thoughts about this year’s hurricane season?

Blayney

In answer to his query as to my credentials regarding weather and hurricanes in general I replied with the following. This is how I came to this point in my life.

Blayney good to hear from you.

Hey, thanks for perusing my site. I'm a marine biologist/science teacher who has lived aboard a small sailboat for over fifteen years. To survive sailors have to look out for things that can kill them,
including hurricanes. I read extensively years ago in preparation for long single-handed ocean voyages about heavy weather, hurricanes, surviving at sea, etc, and came across a discovery by a Norwegian weather guy, I think he was Norwegian, who spoke about the geometry of hurricanes. This fact marinated for a number of years, you know how that is, and while living on the Rio Dulce in Guatemala Hurricane Wilma rose in the near Caribbean with the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in a hurricane, which really got my attention. I got to thinking how great it would be if I knew, on the event the storm came up the river, the direction of the wind so I could better arrange my anchors to save my boat. I noodled about and came up with a picture of the geometry of a hurricane and worked out how to track the storm using only the direction of the ambient wind when the storm was distant and a compass. The HURRICANE FINDER CHART was born. I then worked out a system of diagramming the storm, any hurricane, placing the user's geographic position on the chart, which by using the National Hurricane Center's forecast/ advisory one could paint a picture of the storm showing wind direction and strength at any point on the chart days before the storm's arrival.

Failing to find resources for commercial development of this system in Guatemala I sailed to Isla Mujeres,, Mexico, The Island of Women, and tried to develop it in nearby Cancun, a large industrial city, and eventually sailed back to the United States to further develop and market HURRICANE FINDER, as it was then called. Later on wanting to go cruising again, not tied to a PO Box mailing out packages, I wrote THE HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE that is completely down loadable from the Internet, adding some other books written over the years, CAFE NEWS and TILLER TALES to the site to share what I had been doing for a decade or so.

The site was developed with a fellow cruiser, Tami Gilliam Internet genius, who I met in Mexico, after over a year of painstaking effort. The blog keeps me busy and in many of the articles I insert commercials for products, the perceived purpose of a commercial blog, I think.

So, no, I am not a meteorologist, I just play one on the single side band radio. When in Mexico I acted as the weather guy on The Northwest Caribbean radio net, every morning advising cruisers from Texas to Panama. That was about two hours of work every morning, but gratifying in its' execution.

I am a student of meteorology and rely on weather experts, although years ago I taught a rudimentary weather course at New York University as a Graduate Laboratory Assistant, I started in that position as a freshmen and when I was a senior there taught in the grad school. It was a heady time.

Earth's climate seems to be changing, its' cause is still up for grabs, despite media hype to the contrary, Media likes to do that, gets listeners/readers to pay attention and buy products. Follow the green hype is also about following green paper. Money begets power, power is sought merely for itself, and according to Kissinger is the ultimate aphrodisiac. Who knew?

Earth is in the warming phase of a 1500 year climate cycle, Greenland once supported extensive agriculture, hence its' name, it may do so again. I am not convinced man's puny efforts have anything to do with it, that too is up for grabs. However, Venus has an atmosphere composed mostly of carbon dioxide and is as hot as Mercury, so CO2 certainly has a part in it. However the most prevalent greenhouse gas is water vapor, which we have plenty of. Who knows?

The global warming crowd have stated that we are in for more severe hurricanes as warm water is the fuel that keeps them going. However, meteorologists are not convinced of this because such a scenario also produces stronger upper level winds that act to shear the tops off developing hurricanes. Go figure, eh?

The result may very well be a dearth of severe storms even as more storms arise due to warmer waters in the tropics. Add to this a change in ocean currents, cold ones moving south, etc and a conundrum arises.

God made hurricanes for a purpose. If you get a chance read CHICKEN SOUP AND HURRICANES on my site for their useful purpose. Hurricanes perform a service to a heat stagnant/fresh water starved planet. Go figure. Ay? That's a Canadian eh.

So far this year we've had few storms, all happening this week. Their passage has removed some of the fuel, heat arsenal, and we may have to wait for more to form. The greater number of hurricanes occur in the middle of September. We'll have to wait and see.

Meanwhile I know exactly where I will take NEREIS and I if one comes calling here in coastal Cape Coral, Florida.

My goodness you opened a floodgate. Thanks for listening, I hope it wasn't boring..

THAT'S THAT FOR THIS.

TAKE CARE,

JB

HOW BIILL GATES PLANS TO STOP HURRICANE FORMATION

JB — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:01:00 GMT

         This is Bill Gates, billionaire owner of Microsoft. His work makes it possible for the existence of this site. Who could not admire, almost revere, this extraordinary man.



        Here he is being knighted by Queen Elizabeth. His work has truly changed the world.



        Here is a younger Bill Gates when he first came on to the computer horizon. A playful Gates, unburdened by billions of dollars. A burden indeed. What do you do with the power to change the world?




        A college-age Bill Gates in an embarrassing position. He doesn't seem fazed by the experience here but perhaps there was a different expression the next morning.

               WHAT IS BILL GATES DOING NOW?

        Earlier this week news agencies reported that Mr. Gates, perhaps bored or maybe emboldened by his extraordinary accomplishments, imbued by an almost God-like power, aided by immense amounts of money, has obtained patents for a process to stop formation of hurricanes.



        The picture above describes sea-surface temperature measurements following the passage of a hurricane along the east coast of the United States. The blue color indicates a swath of cooler water brought up by the passing of Hurricane Bonnie. The cool water appeared to weaken another hurricane following in its' wake, hindering its' development.

        This phenomenon got some folks thinking of how to stop the formation of future hurricanes as shown in the picture above.  In short, fueled by huge amounts of money and perhaps ego Mr. Gates, et al, propose anchoring a number of barges in the Gulf of Mexico containing devices that would siphon cool deep water to the surface, mimicking the phenomenon shown by the passage of hurricane Bonnie. The result would be similar to removing most of the gas stations along an interstate highway, thus stopping the passage of cars. No fuel, no movement.

                            IS THIS A GOOD IDEA?

        On surface it may appear to be. By removing the threat of coast wise damage by approaching storms, insurance rates would go down, people would be less disturbed, Bill Gates would be even more revered.   This scheme is similar perhaps to a video game on a grand scale. Should we differentiate between games and real life?



                                  BILL GATES IS A GAMER

        But what would happen in the wake of this massive temperature change in the Gulf? Would weather patterns be altered, along with hurricanes? Would rainfall along the Gulf Coast be altered, diminished? Are hurricanes all bad? Do hurricanes perform a useful function?

                                         Well yes, read on.

                CHICKEN SOUP AND HURRICANES

                                                                         L


        Life can exist on Earth because it has a temperature range suitable for its development. Parts of Nature’s ingenious plan to provide this ideal mix include: an appropriate distance from the Sun, Earth’s rotation, a tilt of the Earth’s axis creating the seasons, and tropical cyclones, called hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean.

        Water can exist as liquid or gas. Transforming water to its’ gaseous form (vaporization) requires large amounts of heat from it’s’ surroundings. When water vapor shifts back to rainwater (condensation) that heat-energy is released.

        Hurricanes move immense amounts of heat-energy from tropical waters to cool temperate zones through these physical changes and also convert salt water to drinkable rainwater for a thirsty world. These storms can cause great damage but pay for their keep by stirring the atmospheric soup.

        Hurricanes originate as tropical waves pouring off African deserts; a new one appears about every three days in the height of the hurricane season. They become tropical depressions when the mass of hot-moist air shaped like a three hundred-mile long fat cigar, squashed as if stepped on, begins rotating in a counterclockwise direction, often in mid-ocean but anywhere favorable conditions occur. Opposing winds in the migrating Inter Tropic Convergence Zone (ITCZ) begin turning it, aided by the Coriolis Effect. As the growing storm rotates it draws water vapor from an ocean whose temperature must be at least 79-degrees Fahrenheit and becomes self-sustaining. When winds reach 40-miles per hour (34-knots) the tropical depression becomes a tropical storm and grows into a hurricane when they reach 75-miles per hour (64 knots.)

        To learn more start with those italicized concepts above. Do you have a different view of hurricanes now? Perhaps not if you live in a hurricane zone but without them life might not thrive on Earth as it does now.

        Don't mess with Mother Nature. If momma ain't happy, nobody happy.

                              That's that for this.

                                  TAKE CARE,

                                         JB

WEATHER CENTERS AROUND THE WORLD

JB — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:19:00 GMT

              I

        In keeping with http://www.globalweathersolutions.com/ we bring you GLOBAL WEATHER SITES. Click on any of the tropical cyclone centers below to see how the other half lives. The first one, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ , is the national hurricane center which chronicles tropical weather for North America. The graphic above is from that site.

        The HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE advertised elsewhere on these pages can be used to track a tropical cyclone's eye without the use of electronics on the HURRICANE FINDER CHART which is also used to paint a picture of the storm showing strength and direction of winds, at your front door, days before it arrives using data from any of the sites mentioned below.

        The Guide is a tool than can be used globally, which may save your property and the lives of your family when electronics fail.

                          Tropical Cyclone Centers Worldwide

                                         National Hurricane Center
                                       http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

      Severe Weather Information Centre World Meteorological Organization
                                                  http://severe.worldweather.org

Japan Meteorological Agency
www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html

Fiji Meteorological Service
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php

New Zealand Meteorological
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.imd.gov.in/

India Meteorological Department
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Meteo France
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/

                                                          Canadian Hurricane Centre
                                                                 http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane

                          OFFSHORE BAHA CALIFORNIA

        This pic was sent to me this spring from Gary and Terry who had just transited the Panama Canal on their way to San Diego, California. They have been mentioned several times in these pages regarding their adventures in the Caribbean. I first met them on the SSB radio as they fought their way to Isla Mujeres, Mexico after engine and sail failure. I wrote CAFE NEWS in Isla, excerpts of which can be found elsewhere on this site. Cruisers call Isla Mujeres just Isla and the Rio Dulce in Guatemalla the Rio. When you hear this shorthand from someone you know they've been there.

        They were several hundred miles offshore in winds of about 50 mph. This is what the sea looks like in such conditions. While a picture may be worth a thousand words nothing can protray what it's like until you've been there. I miss it and am planning to go back south into the Caribbean in the fall. I'll let you know what I find.

              DOLPHINS IN THE PACIFIC OFF BAHA

    Dolphins are a happy sight offshore. I once saw several hundred of these grinning beasts in the central Gulf of Mexico as the sun was setting. They all leaped at the same time perhaps to get a better view of the lone voyager who came all the way out there to amuse them. I wrote about dolphins in TILLER TALES, excerpts can be found elsewhere on this site. Have a look.

                           That's that for this.

                           TAKE CARE,

                                  JB

HOW TO DETERMINE THE DIRECTION OF THE HURRICANE'S EYE FROM WIND DIRECTION

JB — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:42:00 GMT

            I keep track of those who log on to www.globalweathersolutions.com with Traffic Facts supplied by www.godaddy.com, my hosting enterprise. Along with statistics relating to numbers of people logging on are the words they use on their search engine to find my site. One of the people who logged on wrote, "Which direction does the wind blow during a hurricane?"

I logged on to the user's url and brought up a question and answer site with the respondent's answer, which is repeated below. He or she stated they could determine the direction of a hurricane's eye from the way palm fronds pointed, that is since a hurricane's winds spiral inward toward its' eye (see image of a hurricane off the Florida peninsula above) the fronds point directly at the eye. See image of palms blowing in a hurricane's winds above. My answer to the question follows the respondent's entry.

The winds spiral around the eye and  do move toward the center of the storm but at any one point in its' geometry those winds are at a right angle to the direction of the eye. Therefore the eye can be found by facing the wind and measuring 90 degrees to the right.

Log on to www.globalweathersolutions.com and look at the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE, which not only can find the eye, track the eye, without any help from electronics, TV or radio, and using detailed reports from the National Hurricane Center paint a picture of the storm on the HURRICANE FINDER CHART showing the direction and strength of the wind days before the arrival of the storm at any place within the geometry of the hurricane. Your front door for instance. This text book relates to everything hurricanes, history of latitude and longitude, finding distance and direction of the storm, and includes the unique HURRICANE FINDER CHART on which you can track the storm and place your location within its' geometry showing the effects of the strength and direction of its' winds.

The HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE and its' accompanying
HURRICANE FINDER CHART may save your life and property when electronics fail.

                          RESPONDENT'S ENTRY



What direction does the wind blow during a hurricane?

In: Hurricanes Typhoons and Cyclones [Edit categories]

[Edit]

Having observed the winds through hurricanes Francis and Jeanne, which hit about 60 miles North of me and Wilma, where the eye passed over my home and tropical storm Fay, I have learned that I can judge the relative position of the storm - at least the direction of it with respect to my location. My observations are that the prevailing winds blow towards the center of the storm. I watch which way the palm fronds are pointed and if the storm is close enough to see on weather radar, the palm fronds are always pointed towards the storm.

Note that I said the prevailing winds. Gusts can come from many directions.

                                 MY ANSWER

THE OBSERVATION ABOVE IS INCORRECT.
Winds in a hurricane, tropical storm, cyclone, any cyclonic storm in the northern hemisphere blow in a counterclockwise direction around the eye, the center of the storm. South of the equator they blow clockwise, all this due to the Coriolis Effect.
To find the eye of an approaching hurricane, when you are experiencing its winds, the eye will be 90 degrees to the right of the prevailing wind. See the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE on www.globalweathersolutions.com or Google John's Musings Bermuda Meet Bertha Four Days From Now. Using the HURRICANE FINDER CHART, included with the guide, you can track the eye of the storm and paint a picture of the storm at your front door days in advance using information from The National Hurricane Center.
I also experienced Fay on the Caloosahatchee Waterway on my boat NEREIS, and you can read about it on John's Musings. Just Google John's Musing, Dancing With Fay.
Thank you for your indulgence.

                     That's that for this

                          Take care,

                               JB

PREDICTING STORM SURGE WITH THE HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE

JB — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:51:00 GMT

Below is a storm surge map of the Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Florida area published today in The News-Press, the local paper I read every morning primarily for The New York Times crossword puzzle which I do for mental prowess. Prowess seems to be ok so it must be working. I'll let you be the judge.

The storm surge map shows areas which should be evacuated in various hurricane storm strengths. The map came from the Southwest Florida Evacuation Behavior Study whose link follows below.

Certainly while hurricane winds should be feared it is storm surge, (flooding caused by winds blowing toward the shore.)  Onshore winds push water up estuaries and over low lying topography. Storm surge does more damage than wind and causes the most hurricane related deaths. (See additional entries on these subjects on John's Musings.) Flood damage is a separate issue for insurance companies and the prudent home-business owner must purchase separate policies.

However how do you predict storm surge? Using the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE, found elsewhere on this site, you can track the storm, without any help from media, TV, the National Hurricane Center, etc, using only a compass and your senses. Additionally you can paint a picture of the hurricane on the HURRICANE FINDER CHART showing wind direction and strength in your area days before the storm arrives. Days before it arrives. This gives you time to decide how to protect your family, home, business, boat, etc days before the storm arrives.

Download the HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE and save your stuff.



                  STORM SURGE EVACUATION MAP

Click on the link below for the Storm Surge Evacuation Study.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?template=zoom&Site=A4&Date=20090624&Category=WEATHER01&ArtNo=90623083&Ref=AR

          HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE

        MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE WHEN

              ELECTRONICS FAIL.

                  That's that for this.

                     Take care,

                            JB

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	Issue Date 9 December 2009	Issue Date 7 April 2010	Issue Date 2 June 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	11-16	15	18
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)	51-75	75	90
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	6-8	8	10
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)	24-39	35	40
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3-5	4	5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)	6-12	10	13
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	100-162	150	185
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)	108-172	160	195